Qiao Liang was shocked by himself when this thought popped up. He felt that he might have been overthinking. However, the more he analyzed, the more he felt that there was such a possibility.
There must be a deeper meaning to everything Boss Pei did!
For a game like Fitness Battle, how this lucky draw system was done might not have much of an impact on the profitability of the game itself.
Even if it was a regular lottery draw, the players would still draw what they wanted.
Since Boss Pei had made the lucky draw system in its current state so aggressively, there must be a certain intention in it.
He could not tell what his intentions were at the moment, but it was very likely that Boss Pei had predicted the gamers' reactions.
Thus, he had to start from the gamers' reactions if he wanted to truly analyze Boss Pei's intentions.
Qiao Liang immediately searched for posts about the Fitness Battle's lucky draw online and analyzed different user groups.
He quickly found many cases.
That was because the gamers of Fitness Battle seemed to have a much higher desire to publish their results than other games.
Be it those who were especially lucky or those who were especially unlucky, they were all very keen on posting the results of the lucky draw online.
If one were to analyze it according to traditional games with paywalls, players who would charge money would generally be divided into micro-paywalls, medium paywalls, and heavy paywalls. The boundaries were more blurry, and they could be converted to each other. However, the overall boundary was based on the amount of money charged.
However, this method of differentiation did not seem to work in Fitness Battle.
For example, a person would charge 100,000 yuan and keep his favorite orders after a series of draws. The rest would be refunded. In the end, he would only spend more than a thousand yuan. Would that be considered a paywall or a heavy paywall?
This situation was rare but it definitely existed.
Qiao Liang read many cases online and realized that there were all kinds of strange things.
For example, someone had drawn ten consecutive draws five times. In the end, they were all blue skies and white clouds. Only one purple item was produced, and it was not what he wanted.
Thus, this brother refunded all of them, not knowing whether to laugh or cry.
If it was any other game, he might have to ask customer service for an explanation. However, since Fitness Battle could be refunded casually, he would come back in three days.
There was also someone who had drawn three consecutive ten draws, and all of them turned out to be oranges. Originally, he had planned to keep the best ten draws and refund the other two. Now, he did not want to refund it and excitedly flaunted it on the Internet.
There was also the weirdest one. He had really drawn more than fifty ten consecutive draws. He had only kept one ten consecutive draw that produced two oranges. He had refunded the rest. He had even proudly posted that he was the 'King of Sheep' and suggested that everyone learn from him and make Tengda bald.
There were even people who used the lucky draw system as a testing ground. Anyway, everything could be refunded. Refunding the lucky draw was equivalent to not spending any money. They could enjoy the fun of the lucky draw.
This kind of strange situation would never be seen in other games' lottery systems.
Even if the players of other games were to bask in the sun, there would only be two results: "Yes" or "No". Of course, those who were European might be European, but those who were not European might not be too European.
"Tengda's lucky draw mechanism … seems to be based on probability?"
Qiao Liang suddenly had an idea. He listed the difference between the traditional lucky draw mode and the Fitness Battle's lucky draw mode on the document.
'True probability' was relative to 'false probability'.
It would be a huge mistake to think that the traditional lucky draw mode was purely based on probability.
Qiao Liang had also consciously learned a lot about game design. He knew very well that the lucky draw in the game was never a true probability, but a fake probability.
Of course, the fake probability was not entirely because the merchants wanted to make money. Sometimes, it was also to ensure the players' feelings.
One had to have a basic knowledge of probability to understand this point.
For example, if the merchant set the drop rate of a product at 20%, that was already very high.
In that case, if there were enough players and the sample was large enough, the number of players who would draw this product for the first time would be about 20%. That was easy to understand.
However, the probability of not being able to draw five times in a row was multiplied by five 80%, which was 0.32768. That meant that about 30% of players would not be able to draw five times in a row.
The probability of not being able to draw ten times in a row was multiplied by ten 80%. It was about 0.1, which was 10%.
According to the probability, 10% of players would not be able to draw ten times in a row for an item with a 20% drop rate.
If it was added, the probability of not being able to draw twenty times in a row was 1%.
If there were a hundred thousand people participating in this lucky draw, 1% would be a thousand people.
Would they be able to accept that a thousand people could not draw an item with a 20% drop rate twenty times in a row?
That was obviously inconsistent with their intuition: wouldn't an item with a 20% drop rate definitely appear in five draws?
However, probability varied from person to person. A 20% drop rate did not mean that it would definitely appear in five draws. It could not even guarantee that it would appear in ten draws.
The probability could not be accurate to a single individual. Only when the data sample was large enough would the true probability be infinitely close to the theoretical data.
In other words, anything could happen once. However, the probability of drawing a hundred million times would be infinitely close to twenty million times.
However, people who did not understand the basic knowledge of probability would not know this.
One could imagine that if a thousand people did not draw an item with a 20% drop rate twenty times in a row, they would definitely run to the forum to cause trouble. How much pressure would there be at that time?
What's more, most of them were pay-to-win or pay-to-win players. Would they still participate in activities in the future after obtaining such a lucky draw experience? They would already be considered good-tempered if they did not immediately uninstall the game.
Therefore, in order to prevent such a situation from happening, many game manufacturers would set up fake probabilities in the game.
In other words, if a player did not draw an item with a 20% drop rate the first time, the drop rate would increase a little on the second draw. If it did not appear on the fifth draw, it would definitely appear.
This could ensure that no matter how bad the player's luck was, there would always be a guarantee.
From this point of view, fake probabilities did indeed have a certain effect on protecting the players.
However, the problem was that since the game manufacturers had already set up fake probabilities, they would definitely not only protect the interests of the players. Naturally, they would also have to protect their own interests.
For example, if a very precious item worth thousands or tens of thousands of dollars, even if the drop rate was 0.1%, if there were a hundred thousand players participating in the lucky draw, there would be a hundred lucky people who would get it in one draw, and more than ninety lucky people who would get it in two draws …
If it was an unlimited number of precious items, then it would not matter.
However, what if the game company wanted to limit the number of copies to 500 or 1,000 in order to preserve the value of the item?
According to this method of drawing, the people who would really get the item might not necessarily be the people who had topped up the most money. Most likely, it would be those who were really lucky.
Perhaps the rich might not get it even after topping up a few thousand dollars, but someone else would get it in one draw.
If it was drawn by these lucky people, regardless of whether the rich person got it or not, he would still feel unbalanced. This was because even if the rich person got it, he would definitely have spent far more money than the rich person.
Luck and the ability to spend money would not be balanced.
Therefore, the game manufacturers would usually set a prerequisite at this time. That was, after accumulating a certain amount of money, it would be possible to get this item. The more money one topped up, the higher the chance of getting it.
This was also in line with the psychological expectations of most players: I only got it once, so it's normal that I didn't get it; the rich person got it dozens of times, so it's reasonable that he got it.
However, in reality, this was all arranged by the game manufacturers using fake probabilities.
Through this method, the game manufacturers guaranteed the feeling of spending by the rich person, thereby preserving their desire to spend, and naturally, their profits and reputation.
They sacrificed the interests of the small group of pure Europeans, but it did not matter because they did not know that they were actually pure Europeans. They did not know that they could actually get this precious item in one draw. They still thought that it was normal that they did not get it.
Moreover, players had no way to verify the authenticity of the data because the detailed rules of the lucky draw and the data after the lucky draw were all in the hands of the game company. Players had no way to access it at all.
On the other hand, Boss Pei's lucky draw mode was obviously true probability. In other words, 20% was 20%. It did not matter if a thousand people could not get it even after twenty draws. Qiao Liang would give them a full refund and be done with it.
After in-depth comparison of the two different lucky draw modes, Qiao Liang suddenly had an idea.
"Could it be that Boss Pei wants to use this new lucky draw mode to deconstruct the traditional lucky draw mode? To make some players realize that the lucky draw they think is only carried out under the framework drawn by the game company?
"And Tengda's lucky draw is actually taking the initiative to break this framework, giving players an absolutely fair but a little uncomfortable true probability?
"That … that is an almost impossible task!"
Qiao Liang could not help but feel deep respect for Boss Pei.
False probability had long appeared with the lucky draw system. Some websites and applications had even done it before many games had the lucky draw function.
But after so many years, there were very few people who raised doubts about this matter.
On the contrary, more and more players became used to and enthusiastic about the lucky draw. More and more businesses came up with all kinds of lucky draws that seemed to take care of players' feelings on the surface, but in fact, it was more convenient for them to make money.
To game manufacturers, the lucky draw system was equivalent to a stable cash cow. So much so that client-side games, mobile games, and even casual activities of many businesses began to frequently start lucky draws.
Naturally, some people would lose when some people earned.
Games companies loved to do lucky draws so much; they would definitely not lose.
Then wasn't it obvious who was the one who suffered a loss?
Boss Pei's lucky draw system obviously wanted to pierce this veil, tell players the cruel truth, and change this situation!
Of course, the current situation was not optimistic.
That was because most players did not have the relevant knowledge of game design. What's more, it was human nature to try their luck and take advantage of others.
Many people liked lucky draws. If you told them seriously about probability, expectations, and how the lucky draw was a scam, they would not listen at all. They would definitely think that they were lucky. They would even be cheated and spend a huge sum of money to draw a pile of trash. They would still insist that they were unlucky this time and would definitely be able to draw what they wanted next time.
On the other hand, ordinary businesses would obviously try their best to tell consumers that the lucky draw was a preferential activity. Players and businesses would benefit each other. It was very worth it to have a lucky draw.
At most, there would be a very small line of words in the lucky draw: The lucky draw is risky. You have to be careful when recharging.
However, such a hint would definitely be very small. What's more, most people would not take it to heart.
Qiao Liang came to a rather shocking conclusion after this analysis.
"Isn't Boss Pei cutting off all sources of income from the lucky draw?"
"It might not necessarily succeed but Boss Pei is indeed trying his best to use the lucky draw system of the Fitness Battle to contrast other lucky draws so that everyone can see the so-called lucky draw more clearly."
"Even if not many people will appreciate it in the end, even if it will attract crazy attacks from other companies that are counting on the lucky draw to make money, I don't care."
"He's really well-intentioned!"
Qiao Liang could not help but feel emotional. Only Boss Pei was willing to do such a thing!
However, most people's reactions were too slow. They did not sense Boss Pei's good intentions at all.
He had to come up with a video to explain the key points. He could not let Boss Pei's efforts go to waste!
Finger Games and Long Yu Corporation's lucky draw looked very conscientious, but that was only compared to the other unscrupulous lucky draws.
In fact, they were still thinking of ways to earn money from players even if they gave a 30% discount!
Compared to Tengda's actions, what conscience was there to speak of?
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