Indeed, Black Butterfly's chances of winning were very slim.
In a game like Neurasthenia, the advantage of memory was the most obvious advantage. In this regard, Black Butterfly was no match for Feng Bujue.
However, there was another factor that could determine the outcome of a game, and that was … luck.
In the earlier round, even though Feng Bujue had obtained a grand total of twenty-four points, as he had said, with the foundation of his' absolute memory ', this kind of score was not that crazy from a probability perspective.
Excluding the 9 points that he was bound to get, the remaining points could be seen as a case of "five out of six flops with a gradually decreasing probability". And this "gradually decreasing probability" was about 20% until it reached 7% before it stopped.
From the looks of it, what he had done in this round … could be attributed to his luck being pretty good.
There was nothing special about it, so it was not a "gamble" but a "game". Brother Jue thought it was a "boring" game.
In addition, when this round was over, his seemingly "pretty good luck" had actually changed the direction of the wind …
This was because the cards that Feng Bujue flipped in the last three hands were all cards that had one suit revealed. In other words, when he flipped the cards in the end, the number of "known cards" on the table increased from three to six.
In addition, the number of unknown cards on the table had decreased. When Black Butterfly flipped the unknown cards again, the probability of flipping a winning card had increased to more than 15%.
…
Round 11, Black Butterfly's turn.
After Brother Jue cleared the table, there were not many known cards left. So, Black Butterfly was more confident about the suit of the cards.
In the first round, she flipped a new card at a position closer to the known cards according to her own rhythm.
In the end, it was a "known card", which was a "winning card."
Black Butterfly did not have Feng Bujue's "I remember clearly, but I can save it for later use" mentality. She would definitely try to get points as soon as she had the chance.
So, she immediately went back to find the other two cards that she flipped … and succeeded.
"This lady gets three points," the judge announced. "You may continue to flip the cards."
Next, the situation was still the same …
Black Butterfly flipped out another point card, and she quickly converted it into points.
His next move was the same …
Just like that, Black Butterfly tied the score with no surprises. Moreover, due to the reduction in the number of cards, the probability of her flipping the next hand to get a card was higher than 7% when there were only three pairs of cards in the known hand.
"Heh … What do you think?" Black Butterfly smiled at Brother Jue. "It's not like I don't have a chance, right?"
"Hmph … I was already mentally prepared for this kind of difference in luck before the duel began." Feng Bujue replied indifferently. "In short … before you reach 'that score,' you can flip as many times as you want."
"That score?" Black Butterfly thought for two seconds and continued, "Oh, you mean … 33 points?"
Black Butterfly had no doubt studied the rules of the game carefully before the duel began, so she knew that 33 points was a very important score.
According to the rules, after both sides revealed a total of "25 cards," the player could end the game by flipping two "Elysium" cards and enter the final stage.
Then, putting aside the disparity in the outcome, if both sides had a certain number of points, the 25 cards could be divided into 12 versus 13 or 11 versus 14.
In the case of 12 versus 13, the score was 36 to 39. At this time, the trailing side flipped the Elysium card, and with the additional 10 points, the score was 46 to 39, which was enough to turn the tide.
In the case of 11 versus 14, the score was 33 to 42. At this time, the trailing side flipped the Elysium card, and with the additional 10 points, the score was 43 to 42, which was also enough to turn the tide.
In other words, in this game, if the trailing side wanted to make a comeback, there was a prerequisite, and that was to get at least "11 cards" to meet the minimum condition for a comeback.
In theory, the most ideal situation would be: In a round where all 24 cards were revealed on the table, the person who was behind would flip the card. The moment they flipped the 25th card, they would have 33 points. Then … they would flip the "Gokuraku Jodo" card and end the round.
For the trailing side, this was the fastest and best way to make a comeback. If this continued, the score gap would gradually widen because when there were not many unknown cards left on the table, the probability of flipping the cards that could be scored would greatly increase. The probability of flipping two "One Elysium" cards in a row was not impossible. At that time, the side with a better memory and fewer mistakes would definitely have a higher score than the opponent.
"Since you know." Feng Bujue's tone was still very relaxed. After all, it was normal for the opponent to know the meaning of this number. There was no need to be surprised. "Then please work hard in this direction."
"Ha … You don't need to tell me, I will too." Black Butterfly replied and continued flipping the cards.
…
By the end of the eleventh round, the score of the two sides was 24 to 30, and Black Butterfly was leading.
After that conversation, Black Butterfly flipped over two more cards that could be used up, leaving only one pair of Two-Phase Cards in the known cards.
Then, in the last three hands, she flipped two "zero-phase cards" in a row, which was a card that did not have a known suit, and … she flipped the second "Elysium card".
Therefore, when this round was over, there were only two known pairs left on the table, and … the positions of the two "Elysium cards" were already clear.
So far, the two of them had a total of 54 points, which meant that the "Eighteen Phases" had been revealed, and the number of cards left on the table was 48. Among them, there were 20 known cards, which were made up of 2 Inferno cards, 2 Elysium cards, 4 Elysium cards, and 12 Elysium cards.
There were a total of 28 unknown cards, which were 2 Inferno cards and 26 Elysium cards.
In other words, at the beginning of the twelfth round, the probability of Feng Bujue flipping the cards that could be scored was 2 out of 28, which was basically the same as his failure in the previous round, which was only about 7%.
Seeing this, someone would definitely ask, "Can't he just not flip the unknown cards? Can't he just flip three known cards and throw the same situation to his opponent? "
The answer was, "Yes, but … it doesn't solve the problem."
According to the "Flipping Rule" of the [Triple Neurasthenia], the player had to flip at least one unknown card in three consecutive rounds, or else he would be penalized five points.
The purpose of this rule was to prevent the players from wasting their chance to flip cards by flipping the cards that had already been flipped. As for why it was "three consecutive rounds", it was naturally to take into account that some people might misremember the cards and end up flipping three known cards without scoring any points. Under such circumstances, the person who had failed two rounds in a row would have to bear the risk of being penalized for the third round.
Taking the current example into consideration, if Feng Bujue chose to flip three known cards in this round to waste his chance to flip cards, then when it was Black Butterfly's turn, she could do the same. Anyway, Black Butterfly didn't care. As the party with weaker memory, she was happy to see both parties flipping the old cards to help her consolidate her memory.
Besides, she was the party who attacked from the back. In a situation where no one was willing to flip a new card, the party who attacked from the back would at least have the advantage of "one card" because the party who attacked from the back would definitely reveal one more card than the other party.
Of course, Feng Bujue was not the kind of person who would deliberately flip the known cards to defend.
Real gamblers and scoundrels all knew that … that kind of approach would not win.
For example, when Brother Jue tricked Golden Face in the guessing game … If he had considered, "What if I only guess three or four numbers correctly?" or "What if the opponent really made it to the seventh round?", he would have retreated and avoided. In the end, he would have lost.
The demons on the gambling table would not respond to the pleas of the weak. On the contrary, they would devour those weak people.
Retreating, avoiding, giving up thinking, and praying and begging in one's heart would only lead to failure and destruction.
The person who could win had to be convinced at that moment — "I will definitely be able to guess more than five numbers." If he couldn't guess, he might die. And dying … was not a big deal.
Only with such willpower could he guide the "luck" and call for "victory."
…
"Ah … just as I expected …"
In the twelfth round, the first hand, Feng Bujue flipped an unknown card … It was a "One Sees Everything."
At this moment, he had two options. The first option was the safer one — give up on flipping the cards and turn back to flip two known cards to end his round. This way, he would only give the opponent a pair of known cards and reduce the number of unknown cards. When the Black Butterfly attacked, the probability of flipping the first card was three in 27, which was about 11%.
The other, riskier option was to flip another unknown card. If the second card was the same suit as the first, he could score.
Then … what was the success rate of this? What was the risk of failure?
Through the known cards, it could be calculated that among the 27 unknown cards, 22 of them were pairs, which were the "One is clear" cards, 3 of them were the "Two are clear" cards, and 2 of them were the "Hell" cards.
If Feng Bujue wanted to score, he had to flip the first card he flipped in this round, which was only about 3%. If he couldn't flip it, he was faced with three possibilities …
First, he had an 81% chance of flipping the "One Is Clear" card, and then he would give the other party a pair of known pairs, so that the next time the other party flipped the cards, the probability of flipping the card would increase to more than 15%.
Second, he had a 7% chance of flipping one of the other two "Two Sees Everything" cards, giving the opponent a 100% chance of scoring in the next round.
Third, he also had a 7% chance of flipping the Hell card, and this … was already the best result. This way, the opponent's probability of flipping the card would increase to 11.5%, which wasn't a big increase.
In summary, no matter how he looked at it, it was better to choose the safest option.
But …
"According to this trend, if I flip another card, it will most likely be …" Feng Bujue muttered as he flipped the second unknown card.
In the end, he flipped the "Two Sees Everything" card.
Because he had flipped the cards twice in this round, and the cards were of different suits, so it was impossible for him to score. Therefore, the card he flipped was basically confirmed to be the opponent's score.
"Hmm … It seems that luck is on your side." Feng Bujue saw the worst result, but he didn't care at all. "I think you will get more than 6 points in the next round."
As he spoke, he flipped the third card without waiting for the opponent's response.
What was unbelievable was that … he flipped another unknown card. This time, he flipped the "One Sees Everything" card. So, there was another pair of open pairs on the table.
"What is this guy trying to do …" Black Butterfly couldn't understand. She thought to herself, "I can still understand the second hand … A man like him who is so arrogant to the point of narcissism might take a chance at this moment. But the third hand … It's impossible to score, and it will almost certainly give me more advantages. Why would he flip an unknown card?"
"Please …" The next second, Feng Bujue's voice interrupted Black Butterfly's thoughts. "I know what you are thinking … Haha … Don't hesitate because of something you don't understand. You should take the opportunity to get the points you deserve before your memory is blurred. If you make a mistake here … then it would be too easy for me to win. "
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