It was not easy to thoroughly analyze a country. It was quite laborious to collect detailed information about the status quo of the country's various classes, the ruling class, and the rulers.
As soon as Li Yuchang entered the conference room of the intelligence analysis team, he was shocked. On the central wall of the large conference room, which was more than 200 square meters, hung three whiteboards that were leaning against each other. On the whiteboard was a huge map of Japan. The map was fixed with a large number of sticky notes with magnets of various colors. Every piece of paper was filled with words. On the other whiteboards on the walls were maps of the four islands of Japan, which also contained various information.
The office connected to the large conference room and the conference room across the corridor of the conference room were also analysis rooms. What impressed Li Yuchang was that two of the offices had shelves on both sides of the wall. The shelves were pulled back and forth with cotton threads. The intertwined cotton threads reminded Li Yuchang of a spider web. A lot of information was added to the cotton threads with clamps. The information was labeled, with simple explanations, or abbreviated events that he could not understand. The intersection of different cotton threads was fixed with clamps, and the important events were hung under the clamps.
The current Minister of Foreign Affairs, Li Xin, used to be a subordinate of Li Yuchang's nephew, Levis, and also a subordinate of Li Yuchang. Li Yuchang could still remember Li Xin's nervous and curious expression when he was still a child. But when he saw Li Xin again in a small conference room, he found that Li Xin had changed. The young man had become a tired middle-aged man. It seemed that he had been busy for a long time. Li Xin's beard was unshaven. The people who attended the meeting were all young and strong men with similar expressions as Li Xin. They either had cigarettes in their mouths, or simply closed their eyes and sat on the chairs with serious or casual expressions.
Li Xin said loudly, "The reason for the failure of the previous deductions was probably that during the deduction, everyone felt that some people were destined to not die. This is not true. In the situation of Japan, no one will not die, and no one is destined to not die. It's like using dice to add uncertainty in the deduction of military chess. There are too many absolutes and inevitabilities in our deduction. This is obviously not in line with the objective law. "
Hearing this, Li Yuchang felt displeased. It wasn't that there was anything wrong with Li Yuchang's words. It was just that Li Yuchang, who was already 63 years old, was very displeased when he said "no one will not die, and no one is destined to live forever." With his current physical condition, Li Yuchang felt that it would not be a problem for him to live until he was seventy years old. Li Yuchang was very sensitive to the fact that everyone would die.
After the meeting, Li Xin invited Li Yuchang to his office to talk. Li Yuchang smiled and said, "Minister Li, I think you're going to be a fortune-teller now."
Li Xin shook his head tiredly. "Premier, you're making fun of us. We are not fortune-tellers. We originally thought that some people were constants, but we discovered that everyone is actually a variable. It's not easy to figure out the meaning of the variables. "
Hearing these words that he had heard but never thought about, Li Yuchang had to admit that he was really old. After experiencing and seeing the two eras of Manchu Qing and the Min dynasty, Li Yuchang fully admitted that the Manchu Qing era was just a pool of stagnant water. No matter how the officials above changed, they could only jump in the small cage that had been fixed long ago, and those cages were firmly fixed in the social structure like an iron plate. Carving a boat to seek a sword was not only feasible in Manchu Qing, but it was also the only feasible way. The Min dynasty was like the great river that Confucius saw, "The passing is like a man, not giving up day and night." No matter how big the ship was, it would not take long for it to go down the river and change its position. Not to mention that the Min dynasty ship had its own power and was desperately moving forward.
"The commander-in-chief asked me to evaluate the situation in Japan with you, but I don't understand what you're doing at all. I need Minister Li to teach me more, "Li Yuchang said very seriously.
Li Xin hurriedly said, "Premier, you must be joking. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has nothing to do now, so we are here to make various experimental models. So it's very messy. In fact, according to the conventional assessment, everyone just sits there and has a chat. It's just whether Japan will start a war, who will stand on which side, what conditions they can take advantage of. What kind of role can we play in it. "
Seeing that Li Xin was ready to talk about the complicated content that Li Yuchang could not understand at all and did not want to listen carefully, Li Yuchang said calmly, "Looking at everyone's expression, let me also listen to the comrades' summary."
Soon the people in charge gathered and gave Li Yuchang a summary meeting.
"In an extreme case, the three core members of the Meiji government, Okubo Toshimichi, Kido Takayun, and Saigo Takamori were all finished …"
"The first unlikely case is that the Meiji army was defeated, the government collapsed, and the emperor personally commanded the expedition to Kyushu …"
"The more likely case is that the Meiji army won, and the local aristocrats of Kyushu were completely suppressed …"
"The second unlikely case is that Saigo Takamori succeeded in giving Kyushu the same autonomy as Hokkaido, and the other four countries followed suit …"
The development direction of Japan in the assessment was listed one by one. Li Yuchang originally thought that he would face the same chaotic assessment results as the place where the data was processed. He did not expect that the assessment was orderly and the direction was very clear.
Whether it was war or peace, various feasible plans were put forward, including the corresponding explanations of the possibilities. Li Yuchang originally had his own opinion on the assessment meeting of professionals. He did not like this kind of professional meeting at all, and he did not want the professional meeting to be superior to the officials. Even if this idea did not change, he was very impressed by the professional ability of the professionals.
Looking at these young people's analysis of the future of Japan, Li Yuchang suddenly wanted to know, as the real party, could Japan have such a clear analysis and judgment of itself?
The people in Japan did not do these things. For this country of warriors, solving problems directly with the sword was far more popular than detailed analysis and prediction. This was the case with Okubo Toshimichi. He once sent the aristocrats to Hokkaido. At that time, he considered that between the Republic of Prawn in Hokkaido and the aristocrats, one of them would be destroyed. The final result was that the aristocrats' army was destroyed, or at least the aristocrats' army on Honshu was destroyed. This was also considered to have accomplished one of Okubo Toshimichi's goals.
Even though they suffered such a loss, the aristocrats of Japan were not really finished. In 1876, the Meiji government successively promulgated the "Abolition of the Sword" and "Cessation of Family Salary" policies. The local aristocrats were emotional, and large-scale aristocrats rebellions arose in the three islands of Japan. Under the iron fist of Okubo Toshimichi, these aristocrats' rebellions were extinguished.
At the government meeting on July 22nd, when Kido Takayoshi was worried that the aristocrats' rebellion would collude with the people's resistance, Okubo Toshimichi laughed and said, "Hokkaido is always useful. Now those farmers who are likely to join the Ichikage have gone to Hokkaido. Hijikata Suizan, who was recently elected as the Great Commander of Hokkaido, has sent someone to contact the government. They will not intervene in this matter. Our spy's information said that Hijikata told the Hokkaido Parliament about the upcoming war, and all the members of the Hokkaido Parliament opposed to giving any support to the aristocrats. "
The original leaders of Hokkaido were the ministers who had fled to Hokkaido. The reason why they clenched their teeth and persisted was to oppose the Meiji government. Now, the majority of the people in Hokkaido were ordinary people who could not stand the Meiji government's exorbitant levies and had to flee to the Republic of Prawn to survive. Even without the months of fierce fighting with the aristocrats' army, these people would not support the aristocrats. A considerable part of the land rent collected by the Meiji government was used as the annual salary for the aristocrats.
At the mention of the Hokkaido Parliament, Kido Takayoshi was a little excited. He had been working hard to promote the establishment of a constitutional system of government, the separation of three powers, and the bicameral parliament. After agreeing to return, the edict of constitutional system of government was quickly issued. As for the parliament (legislation), the Senate and the Local Magistrates' Council were set up as the upper and lower houses. As for the judiciary, the Grand Inquisition was set up, which was equivalent to the current Supreme Court of Japan.
Although the ruthless and realistic Okubo Toshimichi did not oppose this ideal, he thought that it was too early, unrealistic and meaningless. Before the aristocrats' power was completely eliminated, the parliament could only be a place for the dissatisfaction of the samurai who were deprived of their privileges. After Hokkaido took the lead in establishing the parliamentary system, Okubo Toshimichi's evaluation was that once the aristocrats were defeated, the system of Hokkaido could be the teacher of the Meiji government.
"Now I have sent troops to Kyushu to transport the ammunition in Kyushu's arsenal back to Honshu. As long as Saigo doesn't come out to make trouble at this time, the problem can be solved in two years at most. "Okubo Toshimichi said to Kido Takayoshi.
Seeing that his dream could be realized, Kido Takayoshi's cheeks turned red, and compared with his pale face, the red cheeks looked quite sick. Seeing this, Okubo Toshimichi couldn't help but sigh, "Kido, you have to take care of your body. If you can't wait for the constitutional system and see the establishment of the parliament, it will be too regrettable!"
Kido Takayoshi certainly knew his physical condition. He laughed at himself and said, "Don't worry, I won't let myself down."
A month later, on August 22nd, Kido Takayoshi fell ill. So he didn't know that Okubo Toshimichi and others had made a decision after discussion. If Saigo Takamori continued to stay in Kagoshima, which was full of hostility to the Meiji government, they would find a way to assassinate Saigo Takamori.
This plan was just a record. At this time, Saigo Takamori didn't stay in Kagoshima, but went to Okuma Peninsula to take part in the autumn hunt. With Okubo Toshimichi's ruthlessness, he certainly didn't think that his old comrade would really cooperate with the government's action. Saigo Takamori's action was just to prepare for the future. As long as the Meiji government encountered an obstacle and was opposed by the whole country, Okubo Toshimichi believed that his old comrade Saigo Takamori would immediately jump out to help. But that was a matter for the future. At this time, Okubo Toshimichi only hoped that Saigo Takamori would continue to behave.
The shrewd Saigo Takamori could behave, but the aristocrats of Kyushu refused to behave. After the news that the government army was going to move all the ammunition of the Satsuma Domain to Honshu was leaked, the young students of Kagoshima Military Academy were angry.
The government army thought that this was a means to avoid military conflict. Without ammunition, Kyushu naturally didn't have the power to resist the government army, and this war couldn't be fought at all. But in the eyes of the young students of Kyushu's military academies, once they didn't have the power to resist the government army, they would be killed by the government army. The government army would never let go of the aristocrats of Kyushu.
On September 3, the students of Kagoshima Military Academy attacked the gunpowder depot of the Kusomoda Army in Kagoshima. Soon after, the gunpowder depots of Kagoshima, Uenohara, and other places were also attacked. Many places in Kagoshima were also set on fire, and the riots were out of control.
On September 5, the government army and the police began to arrest the students who caused the riots.
On September 7, some Japanese businessmen began to move in China, hoping to buy arms.
On September 8, Vézé received a report asking if he could sell arms to the Satsuma Domain. In the current situation, Japan was no longer a match for China. Vézé had already given up on Japan. Including the problem of dealing with Japan, he handed it over to the department in charge of this work. However, the sale of arms was not something that could be decided by the people below. The new arms were kept secret, and it was impossible to export them. Even if it was the old arms, any sale without the approval of the Military Commission was a major violation. No one was willing to risk their position.
Vézé still handed this issue over to the evaluation team of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Since Japan had no chance to shake China's foundation, Vézé put this matter aside. He made a request to the Military Commission to make a plan for the cavalry regiment to go out and capture Central Asia.
"The Russians are in a difficult position. If Pleven can hold on until next year, Russia will have to make major adjustments. Either they will mobilize troops to capture Pleven at any cost, or they will change the main direction of attack and attack the Caucasian front on the east side of the Black Sea. Once the Russian army and the Osman army are in a stalemate, we will respond to the request of the people of several Khaganates in Central Asia and send troops to liberate Central Asia. "Vézé said calmly and righteously.
"Are we going to attack Russia on a large scale?" Lei Hu was a little excited. He proposed this plan more than half a year ago, and Vézé told Lei Hu to be patient. Lei Hu even planned to wait two or three years. He didn't expect that in less than a year, the opportunity would appear.
Vézé shook his head helplessly. "Tiger Lei, this comrade of yours. Liberating the people of Central Asia is our goal, and perhaps going to war with Russia is a necessary action to achieve this goal. You can't put the cart before the horse. And everyone has heard of the great poet of China, Li Bai. "
Everyone had heard of Li Bai, and the comrades of the Military Commission nodded to show that they knew.
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