"We should wait and not enter the market now." Fu Rongqi said.
"Why?" Fu Guangzheng was puzzled.
"Because the Thai Government had not intervened yet. When the Thai Government intervenes, it will be a fierce battle. A country's government will not be helpless. "Fu Rongqi starts to share his experiences with Fu Guangzheng.
"Then, we should wait now?"
"That's right. Wait."
They waited for more than a month, and the Thai Government intervened to pull up the depreciated rates. It's already early May, and Feng Yu had returned to Hong Kong. Kirilenko had also followed him.
"Feng, how much longer do we have to wait?" Kirilenko's patience is limited. It's been more than a month, and they had lost a few hundred million USD. The exchange rate of Thai Baht is only 25: 1, and their profits are not enough to cover their losses. Luckily, Thailand's share prices are still falling, and their futures contracts can cover most of their losses.
"When Soros and the rest can't take it anymore, they will contact us. We can only dump Thai Baht at the same time to suppress Thai Baht. " Feng Yu is very calm. If it's as simple as Kirilenko thinks, then there will be more Forex trading.
"But why did you start to short Malaysia's Ringgit again?" Kirilenko doesn't understand. Feng Yu had not even suppressed a country's currency, and why did he start to enter another country's market? Can he still use his funds?
"You should not know that Malaysia is the country with the most trade with Thailand. Both countries have a lot of debts, and when Thailand's economy is in trouble, Malaysia's economy will also be affected. "
Why is this Asian Financial Crisis known as the Asian Financial Crisis? It's because the economies of all the countries in East Asia are similar, and there are many trades between them.
When one of the links breaks, the whole chain will be broken, and these countries will suffer losses. After that, it will be easier to suppress them.
Kirilenko nodded. Anyway, he had seen Thailand losing money every day, and if it weren't for the futures contracts, he would have withdrawn his funds. Without Feng Yu, even if Soros had invited him, Kirilenko will not attack Thailand. This country's economy is doing well.
How rich is Thailand now? The per capita GDP is more than 3,000 USD, which is many times that of Hua Xia. It looks like the prototype of a developed country, right?
But strangely, Thailand's average debt is more than 1,500 USD. That means Thailand's debt ratio is more than 50%.
Thailand's economic development depends on foreign investments and Thailand's manufacturing exports. Thailand's manufacturing exports account for more than 42% of the country's GDP.
This ratio is reflected in many countries in Southeast Asia that are close to the sea. After all, sea transportation is the most mainstream international transportation method.
Secondly, Thailand's real estate industry is booming, and it is their second pillar industry. Among them, foreign investment accounted for a large proportion. Luxury hotels, office buildings, vacation villas, and golf courses were constantly being built.
In Bangkok alone, there were two international convention centers and four international convention centers under construction. The number of hospital beds was more than three times the actual need. Speculating in real estate had become a fast and safe shortcut to making money.
However, there was a huge hidden danger, and that was that the vacancy rate was extremely high, more than 20%. That means Thailand built so many houses not to live in or because of necessity. It was built to speculate in real estate.
This model is similar to the US and Japan's economy in the 1980s. With real estate and exports as the pillar industry, it will create a fake boom and a property bubble.
It is worth mentioning that Japan accounts for the majority of foreign investments in Thailand's real estate market. Japan's investments account for the majority of Thailand's real estate market.
When the US's real estate market collapsed, Japan's disaster was transferred to Japan. After that, the US developed its technology, and the real estate market recovered. But Japan's real estate market had not recovered yet. But the smart Japanese businessmen found a solution. They will replicate Japan's real estate market in other Southeast Asian countries and make money from it.
This time, the Japanese learned their lesson. When the real estate market is at its peak, they will withdraw from the market and make high profits. After that, they will leave the mess to those countries' governments. This way, they can make money and at the same time, attack other countries' economies. This will ensure Japan's status as Asia's economic leader.
Another interesting point was Thailand's liberalization of the financial system. To promote the development of the capital market, they removed the securities transaction tax, reduced the company dividend tax, and even provided financial support to securities companies.
After removing the restrictions on interest rates, Thailand's short-term lending market developed rapidly. Foreign exchange was opened to the outside world, and the limit for foreign investors to remit out of the country is 500,000 USD. This caused Thailand's foreign reserves to be insufficient.
Maybe Thailand saw the benefits of other countries' financial development and opened up offshore financial services. Thailand's 50 commercial banks, including 35 foreign banks, were allowed to take in foreign deposits and loans. They can also get loans in foreign currencies from Thailand and other countries.
This allowed Soros, Feng Yu, and the rest to borrow Thai Baht easily.
Of course, there is another important point. Thailand allows non-residents to open Thai Baht accounts with Thailand's commercial banks. They can make deposits and loans freely. Thailand's capital market had been opened up.
In the short term, Thailand can get a large amount of foreign investments and develop its economy. But at the same time, Thailand's financial crisis is a huge problem.
For example, Thailand does not control the scale of foreign debts, and the supervision of the financial institutions is almost non-existent. Thailand's stocks and bonds are open to the outside world, giving international speculators a lot of opportunities.
Also, Thailand does not impose any restrictions on foreign investments. They even welcome foreign investments as they feel this is a good way to boost their economy.
Thailand's companies can borrow money from other countries, and their foreign debts are huge. Their national debt ratio was more than 50% of GDP, which was a very telling sign. Thailand's companies might seem to be doing well, and their assets are increasing. But after deducting the debts, they are still incurring losses!
The country that Thailand owes the most foreign debts is Japan. Japan has the highest number of banks in Thailand and the whole of East Asia. They are trying their best to borrow money from other countries because Japan has excess funds. Japan's investments in Thailand had exceeded 10 billion USD a long time ago.
Even if Soros and the rest did not attack Thailand, Thailand's economy will not survive the year 2000. When Japan withdraws from the real estate and financial markets, Thailand's economy will collapse.
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