London
From the start of the arms race in Europe, the Government of the United Kingdom had been paying close attention to it. They knew the movements of the various countries.
Foreign Affairs Minister Palmerston continued, "According to the intelligence we've gathered, the Government of Austria's military expansion this time should be aimed at the Osman Empire. Our plan to divert the disaster has succeeded.
However, there has been a slight change. The Government of Austria may have reached a compromise with the Russians. It's impossible to provoke a conflict between Russia and Austria in a short period of time.
However, if there are too many conflicts of interest, even the best relationship will be broken. From the moment Austria set foot in the The Balkans, the Russo-Austrian Alliance was destined to collapse … "
Prime Minister John Russell frowned and questioned, "Mr. Palmerston, I believe in your judgment that the Russo-Austrian Alliance will collapse sooner or later. However, this time may be three years later, five years later, but definitely not now.
Before their common enemy, the Osman Empire, falls, Russia and Austria can still work closely together.
The seeds of hatred were planted hundreds of years ago. Whether it was the Russians or the Austrians, there was no one who didn't want the Osman Empire to fall.
Apart from hatred, there was also an even more tempting interest. The Russians want the Black Sea Strait, the Austrians want the Danube Valley.
The Osman Empire is too weak and has been targeted by two bandits. However, we can't let them fall now.
It doesn't matter if the Austrians want the Danube Valley, but if the Black Sea Strait falls into the hands of the Russians, we will suffer a great loss.
I don't think a single Constantinople can satisfy the appetite of the Tsarist government. They have suppressed their desires for so many years, and now that they are released, it will definitely be earth-shattering.
Once the Osman Empire falls, the Austrians will at most annex half of the The Balkans, and the Russians will occupy the land along the Black Sea Strait.
At that time, not only will our interests in the Osman Empire be at risk, but our interests in the Mediterranean Sea will also be greatly affected. Even South Africa and India will be threatened by the Russians. "
This was the crux of the problem. The British needed the Osman Empire to block the Russians. No one wanted to be neighbors with the Russians, and John Bull was no exception.
If the Russians were to annex the Ottoman Empire and gain control of the central position that spanned across Asia, Europe, and Africa, the situation would be completely out of control.
Palmerston explained with a gloomy face, "Prime Minister, the situation isn't that bad. No European country wanted to see the Russians grow, and this was their chance.
It was unknown whether the Austrians and Russians had reached an agreement or where their bottom lines were.
However, one thing is for sure. The Austrians don't want the Russia to grow. As old neighbors, the Russians' threat was a more accurate assessment of their feelings.
Thus, in this impending war, they would most likely only take advantage of the situation and then watch the tigers fight. Defeating the Ottoman Empire with a single blow would not be beneficial to them.
"The Osman Empire isn't weak. As long as they know who their enemies are and focus on defending against the Russians, they should be able to hold out for a long time with our support.
"During this time, we can work with France, Prussia, Spain, and other European countries to intervene in the war."
This explanation wasn't satisfactory. From the current situation, the foreign policy adopted by the Government of London had failed.
It wasn't wrong to lead Austria to the The Balkans. The problem was that the unreasonable Hairy Bear was going to use violence to break the situation.
Looking at how long the Russians had been preparing for the war, everyone knew that this war wouldn't be a small one. Coupled with Austria, who wanted to take advantage of the Osman Empire, if there was no external intervention, the chances of the Osman Empire surviving were infinitesimally small.
The British knew that a war between Russia and Turkey would break out. They weren't the only ones who knew. All the European countries were mentally prepared.
The friendly matches between the Russians and the Osman Empire had been held many times. Everyone knew the pattern. Basically, when a generation grew up, both sides would have a match.
This kind of friendly match wasn't always a decisive battle with all the strength of the country. Most of the time, it was just a local war. Any excuse could be used to start the war, and when it was about time, the war would stop.
This could be seen from the preparation time. In general, the more prepared one was, the more intense the war would be.
Since the second half of 1849, the Russians had been preparing. Until now, there were no signs of them starting. The scale of the war could be imagined.
In this context, bringing Austria into the The Balkans would naturally exacerbate the chaos. If Russia and Austria were to fight against each other, it would be fine. If Russia and Austria joined forces, even God couldn't save the Osman Empire.
Palmerston naturally had a headache. If he knew this would happen, he wouldn't have cared about the Kingdom of Sardinia and let Austria sink into the quagmire of Italy.
Now, the situation was much better. Austria, who didn't have the energy to expand, was definitely the vanguard against Russia's expansion.
This was inevitable. If there were no benefits, Franz would also oppose Russia's expansion.
It wasn't because of jealousy, but because of the country's strategic needs. Everyone understood the reason. If Russia was strong, it naturally meant that Austria was relatively weak.
John Russell thought for a moment and said, "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs can start taking action now. If Russia and Austria join forces to attack the Osman Empire, they won't be able to hold on for long."
At this time, the British were not prepared to go into battle. With their pocket-sized army, it wouldn't be long before they were swallowed by the war.
The key was that the gold medal fighter, the French, hadn't returned yet. Now, Napoleon Iii hadn't been restored, and the parliament and the president were still fighting.
The Government of France, which had serious internal strife, didn't have any weight internationally. It was also extremely difficult to fulfill the promise made by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
…
Paris
The international change was a disaster for many people, but for Louis Napoleon Bonaparte, it was an opportunity.
The British needed a stable Government of France to play a role in the upcoming Russian war and suppress the Russian ambitions.
At this time, other than supporting him, was there a better choice?
They couldn't support the parliament, right? Their efficiency couldn't compare to a dictator's.
The restoration plan had already been born among the Bonapartists, and it could be launched at a suitable opportunity.
As for the issue of Austria's military expansion, like the British, Louis Napoleon Bonaparte also believed that Austria was going for the The Balkans.
In order to induce strategic misjudgments, the Government of Austria didn't just talk without action.
The spies sent to the The Balkans were caught by the Osman Empire. This was just a small trick. Stationing troops at the border between Austria and the Osman Empire was also just a normal operation.
The public opinion of Austria also dug up the old debts of the Osman Empire. The Balkan strategy formulated by the military was brought up for discussion every now and then.
If they didn't know that Austria was going to take revenge on the Osman Empire, then they wouldn't be Austrians.
There were also all kinds of strategic materials that were constantly being transported to Transylvania for storage. It seemed that all they needed was an excuse for Austria to send troops to the Danube River Valley.
To deceive others, one must first deceive oneself. Franz understood this principle. If his own people believed it, why would he be afraid that the enemy wouldn't believe it?
Other than the Austrian cabinet members, only a few high-ranking military officers knew the true purpose of the government. Most Austrians believed that the government was going to war with the Osman Empire.
Many official media outlets also analyzed that the war between Russia and Turkey was about to break out, and Austria could just follow along and take advantage of the situation. They wouldn't have to pay a high price to occupy the Danube River Valley.
With this series of actions, Britain and France naturally thought that Austria was going to attack the The Balkans.
The westward expansion plan was completely covered up. The only movement was probably the sudden acceleration of the domestic railway construction.
Even the railway that Bavaria presided over had many enthusiastic people in society to provide convenience for them.
Many people even urged the Royal Bavarian Railway Company to speed up and not delay them from making money.
Austria's strategic deception plan not only deceived Britain and France, but also confused the people of Prussia. When it was confirmed that Austria's target was the The Balkans, Frederick William IV Of Denmark did what he had to do other than showing envy and jealousy.
There was no other way. Russia and Austria were going to attack the Osman Empire. No matter how envious they were, they couldn't run over and get a share of the pie.
Geopolitics determined the interests of the Osman Empire, and it had nothing to do with the Kingdom of Prussia. In that case, if the Austrians wanted to expand their army, let them. Anyway, without their own interests, the Kingdom of Prussia naturally didn't need to follow up.
Not only were the Great Powers fooled, even the Swiss, who had been on tenterhooks for a long time, breathed a sigh of relief. It was fine as long as they were sure that the Austrians weren't going after them. The life and death of the Osman Empire had nothing to do with them.
Under the media's publicity, the news that Russia and Austria were going to cause trouble for the Osman Empire was already known to everyone.
It had nothing to do with them, so they just let it go. The European people turned into spectators, waiting for the show to begin.
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